BY:&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/author/ariana-figueroa/">ARIANA FIGUEROA</a>

WASHINGTON — Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump on Monday hopscotched across swing states and prepared for what could be an exceedingly tense election night watch as the 2024 presidential election sped to a close.

So far, more than 80.6 million Americans have voted, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/" target="_blank">the University of Florida’s Election Lab.</a>

In a presidential contest that pollsters say is virtually a toss-up, seven battleground states likely will determine the outcome of the election. The results could take days, election officials repeatedly&nbsp;<a href="https://kansasreflector.com/article/final-results-may-lag-deadlocked-presidential-contest-anxious-election-officials-warn">have warned</a>&nbsp;and stressed again Monday. The 2020 presidential race was called for President Joe Biden the Saturday following Election Day.

“Election Day is not results day,” said&nbsp;Quentin Turner, the Common Cause Michigan executive director, during a Monday webinar.

Jen O’Malley Dillon, chair of the Harris-Walz campaign, made similar remarks during a Monday call with reporters, but still issued predictions as to when the campaign expects to know some results from key states.

She said the campaign understands that results could take a while based on each state’s law. Some states begin counting votes after the polls close, some as they come in.

O’Malley Dillon said because of that, the campaign expects on election night to have “near complete results” for North Carolina, Michigan and Georgia, “and then partial results from Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona.”

She said the campaign expects by Wednesday morning to have most of the “results in from Wisconsin and additional results from Pennsylvania and potentially Michigan.”

“And then on Wednesday and beyond, we expect additional results from Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada,” she said. “So we think some of this stuff will trickle in, but keep in mind that some ballots will continue to be counted for many days.”

Democracy groups like Common Cause said during the webinar that they are prepared for high voter turnout on Election Day.

Bob Phillips, the Common Cause North Carolina executive director, said he expects about 1 to 1.5 million voters in his state on Election Day.

“For the most part, we’ve seen a lot of voter enthusiasm,” he said.

He added that there have been more calls on the voter help hotline than in the previous elections.

“There is definitely higher tension, more emotion, particularly among the electioneering that goes on outside the precincts, as well as some issues since this is our first major election where we’ve had the voter ID requirements,”&nbsp;Phillips said.

Harris is closing out her campaign in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, which offers the most electoral votes of the swing states at 19.

O’Malley Dillon said the campaign will have get-out-the-vote rallies late Monday night in the seven swing states with Harris and surrogates.&nbsp;

“We’ve believed all along this race is going to be incredibly close, and so it’s really going to come down to mobilization, and that’s why an event like tonight matters so much,” she said.

Harris will head to Scranton and then to Allentown, a city with a large Puerto Rican population that Democrats have courted following racist remarks by a comedian at a Trump rally that referred to the island of Puerto Rico as “garbage.” She’ll then rally in Philadelphia with musical performances from The Roots and Lady Gaga among others.

Trump will make four stops in three states — starting in Raleigh, North Carolina, stopping twice in Pennsylvania at&nbsp;Reading and Pittsburgh and finishing in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

<a href="https://ncnewsline.com/2024/11/04/trump-in-final-nc-rally-looks-for-a-third-straight-win-harris-barnstorms-pennsylvania/" target="_blank">While at his first campaign stop in North Carolina</a>&nbsp;on Monday, he told supporters that if he wins another term he will levy a 25% tariff on Mexico if migrants continue to head from that country to the U.S.-Mexico border.

“You’re the first I’ve told this to,” Trump told the crowd. “And if that doesn’t work, we’ll go up to 50. And if that doesn’t work, we’ll go to 75.”

Trump will hold his election night watch party at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida. Harris will have hers at her alma mater at Howard University in Washington, D.C.

Polls published over the weekend still showed a tight race, but one in Iowa&nbsp;<a href="https://kansasreflector.com/article/harris-takes-slim-lead-over-trump-final-iowa-poll-2024-election">rattled the Trump campaign</a>, showing that Harris had a lead in a state that the former president easily won in 2016 and 2020.

The highly regarded pollster — somewhat of a Midwestern oracle — showed that independent and women voters were breaking for Harris.

Both candidates are within the margin of error in all seven swing states meaning any of the states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin — could tip to either one.

Over the weekend, Harris appeared on NBC’s live sketch comedy show, “Saturday Night Live.”&nbsp;<a href="https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/nbc-donald-trump-campaign-free-ad-time-nascar-race-kamala-harris-snl-sketch-1236052709/" target="_blank">Trump also appeared</a>&nbsp;on a free commercial during NBC’s broadcast of a Sunday NASCAR race in compliance with the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.fcc.gov/sites/default/files/political_programming_fact_sheet.pdf" target="_blank">FCC’s Equal Time rule.</a>

<a href="https://michiganadvance.com/2024/11/04/harris-vows-to-end-war-in-gaza-during-final-michigan-rally-at-msu/" target="_blank">On Sunday, while at Michigan State University,</a>&nbsp;Harris pledged that she would do “everything in her power” to end the war in Gaza if she were to win the White House. Michigan has a high Arab American population that has been critical of Democrats’ handling of the Israel-Hamas war, where&nbsp;<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2023/10/9/israel-hamas-war-in-maps-and-charts-live-tracker" target="_blank">more than 44,000 Palestinians have been killed.</a>

<a href="https://kansasreflector.com/article/harris-takes-slim-lead-over-trump-final-iowa-poll-2024-election">During a Sunday rally</a>&nbsp;in Pennsylvania, Trump told supporters that he shouldn’t have left the White House after losing the 2020 presidential race and then he joked about not minding if journalists were shot while covering his campaign event.&nbsp;

<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2024/11/1730773867298.png" alt="Vice President Harris knocked on doors in Pennsylvania Monday night-image courtesy CSPAN" />
 <figcaption>Vice President Harris knocked on doors in Pennsylvania Monday night-image courtesy CSPAN</figcaption>
 </figure>BY:&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/author/ariana-figueroa/">ARIANA FIGUEROA</a>WASHINGTON — Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump on Monday hopscotched across swing states and prepared for what could be an exceedingly tense election night watch as the 2024 presidential election sped to a close.So far, more than 80.6 million Americans have voted, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/" target="_blank">the University of Florida’s Election Lab.</a><figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2024/11/1730814909704.png" alt="Former President Donald Trump with his family on stage late Monday in Michigan. Image courtesy Margo Martin Deputy Director of Communications" />
 <figcaption>Former President Donald Trump with his family on stage late Monday in Michigan. Image courtesy Margo Martin Deputy Director of Communications</figcaption>
 </figure>In a presidential contest that pollsters say is virtually a toss-up, seven battleground states likely will determine the outcome of the election. The results could take days, election officials repeatedly&nbsp;<a href="https://kansasreflector.com/article/final-results-may-lag-deadlocked-presidential-contest-anxious-election-officials-warn">have warned</a>&nbsp;and stressed again Monday. The 2020 presidential race was called for President Joe Biden the Saturday following Election Day.“Election Day is not results day,” said&nbsp;Quentin Turner, the Common Cause Michigan executive director, during a Monday webinar.Jen O’Malley Dillon, chair of the Harris-Walz campaign, made similar remarks during a Monday call with reporters, but still issued predictions as to when the campaign expects to know some results from key states.She said the campaign understands that results could take a while based on each state’s law. Some states begin counting votes after the polls close, some as they come in.O’Malley Dillon said because of that, the campaign expects on election night to have “near complete results” for North Carolina, Michigan and Georgia, “and then partial results from Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona.”She said the campaign expects by Wednesday morning to have most of the “results in from Wisconsin and additional results from Pennsylvania and potentially Michigan.”“And then on Wednesday and beyond, we expect additional results from Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada,” she said. “So we think some of this stuff will trickle in, but keep in mind that some ballots will continue to be counted for many days.”Democracy groups like Common Cause said during the webinar that they are prepared for high voter turnout on Election Day.Bob Phillips, the Common Cause North Carolina executive director, said he expects about 1 to 1.5 million voters in his state on Election Day.“For the most part, we’ve seen a lot of voter enthusiasm,” he said.He added that there have been more calls on the voter help hotline than in the previous elections.“There is definitely higher tension, more emotion, particularly among the electioneering that goes on outside the precincts, as well as some issues since this is our first major election where we’ve had the voter ID requirements,”&nbsp;Phillips said.<h2>It’s all about Pennsylvania (almost)</h2>Harris is closing out her campaign in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, which offers the most electoral votes of the swing states at 19.O’Malley Dillon said the campaign will have get-out-the-vote rallies late Monday night in the seven swing states with Harris and surrogates.&nbsp;“We’ve believed all along this race is going to be incredibly close, and so it’s really going to come down to mobilization, and that’s why an event like tonight matters so much,” she said.Harris will head to Scranton and then to Allentown, a city with a large Puerto Rican population that Democrats have courted following racist remarks by a comedian at a Trump rally that referred to the island of Puerto Rico as “garbage.” She’ll then rally in Philadelphia with musical performances from The Roots and Lady Gaga among others.Trump will make four stops in three states — starting in Raleigh, North Carolina, stopping twice in Pennsylvania at&nbsp;Reading and Pittsburgh and finishing in Grand Rapids, Michigan.<a href="https://ncnewsline.com/2024/11/04/trump-in-final-nc-rally-looks-for-a-third-straight-win-harris-barnstorms-pennsylvania/" target="_blank">While at his first campaign stop in North Carolina</a>&nbsp;on Monday, he told supporters that if he wins another term he will levy a 25% tariff on Mexico if migrants continue to head from that country to the U.S.-Mexico border.“You’re the first I’ve told this to,” Trump told the crowd. “And if that doesn’t work, we’ll go up to 50. And if that doesn’t work, we’ll go to 75.”Trump will hold his election night watch party at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida. Harris will have hers at her alma mater at Howard University in Washington, D.C.<h2>Polling puzzles</h2>Polls published over the weekend still showed a tight race, but one in Iowa&nbsp;<a href="https://kansasreflector.com/article/harris-takes-slim-lead-over-trump-final-iowa-poll-2024-election">rattled the Trump campaign</a>, showing that Harris had a lead in a state that the former president easily won in 2016 and 2020.The highly regarded pollster — somewhat of a Midwestern oracle — showed that independent and women voters were breaking for Harris.Both candidates are within the margin of error in all seven swing states meaning any of the states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin — could tip to either one.Over the weekend, Harris appeared on NBC’s live sketch comedy show, “Saturday Night Live.”&nbsp;<a href="https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/nbc-donald-trump-campaign-free-ad-time-nascar-race-kamala-harris-snl-sketch-1236052709/" target="_blank">Trump also appeared</a>&nbsp;on a free commercial during NBC’s broadcast of a Sunday NASCAR race in compliance with the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.fcc.gov/sites/default/files/political_programming_fact_sheet.pdf" target="_blank">FCC’s Equal Time rule.</a><a href="https://michiganadvance.com/2024/11/04/harris-vows-to-end-war-in-gaza-during-final-michigan-rally-at-msu/" target="_blank">On Sunday, while at Michigan State University,</a>&nbsp;Harris pledged that she would do “everything in her power” to end the war in Gaza if she were to win the White House. Michigan has a high Arab American population that has been critical of Democrats’ handling of the Israel-Hamas war, where&nbsp;<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2023/10/9/israel-hamas-war-in-maps-and-charts-live-tracker" target="_blank">more than 44,000 Palestinians have been killed.</a><a href="https://kansasreflector.com/article/harris-takes-slim-lead-over-trump-final-iowa-poll-2024-election">During a Sunday rally</a>&nbsp;in Pennsylvania, Trump told supporters that he shouldn’t have left the White House after losing the 2020 presidential race and then he joked about not minding if journalists were shot while covering his campaign event.&nbsp;

‘Election Day is not results day’: Get ready for a wait to find out who’s president

The FBI, in conjunction with key partners, is operating a 24/7 national election command post (NECP) from the Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC) at FBI Headquarters in Washington, D.C., during the 2024 national election, according to a media release from the agency.

Numerous FBI Headquarters divisions are represented in the NECP, as well as federal partners from a variety of agencies,&nbsp;including the U.S. Department of Justice, U.S. Postal Inspection Service, U.S. Postal Service Office of Inspector General, U.S. Secret Service, U.S. Capitol Police, Department of Homeland Security, Election Assistance Commission, and Federal Communications Commission.&nbsp;

The NECP's purpose is to ensure the FBI is well-positioned to respond to any election security issue that may arise, including federal election crimes, threats to election workers, foreign malign influence operations, cyber threats, and acts of domestic terrorism. The NECP will track significant complaints from all 55 FBI field offices through their respective command posts.

“The purpose of the command post is to ensure the FBI is well positioned to respond to threats that would come in or information that would come in that would affect our election security,” said James Barnacle, deputy assistant director of the Bureau’s Criminal Investigative Division. “Those threats include criminal threats such as threats to election workers, foreign malign influence, cyber threats and acts of domestic violence.”

About 80 personnel from the FBI and about a dozen partner agencies are staffing the command post in the FBI’s Strategic Information Operations Center. The command post opened on November 1 and will run through at least November 9.

“We feel like we're well positioned to handle and triage information that comes in,” Barnacle said. “We have the people in place. We've identified the right people at the different agencies. We've developed those partnerships over the last few years. We're going to take the information that comes in, and we're going to take it through our process, and we're going to share that information.”

Barnacle said that each of the FBI’s 55 field offices is also staffing a command post that is closely connected with their partner agencies and election officials. That way information or complaints that are fielded at the local level or though the FBI’s tip line,<a href="http://%20tips.fbi.gov/" target="_blank">&nbsp;tips.fbi.gov</a>, get to the people who can triage and best determine a response.

“We look at that threat information,” Barnacle said. “We run it through our indices. We engage with our partners. There's a lot of partner agencies here at the command post. So we triage that information. We also work with Department of Justice to ensure that we are staying within policy and taking the information and then sending it back out to the field or to state or local election officials.”

In the days leading up to Election Day, SIOC’s National Crisis Coordination Center (NC3) was humming with activity. The space hosts command posts for other high-profile events, such as presidential inaugurations and State of the Union speeches. Created in 1989, SIOC began with just seven employees and 3,000 square feet of space. Today, its footprint has grown to 40,000 square feet.

The FBI is mandated by National Security Presidential Memorandum 32 to provide timely information about national security incidents so leaders have the information to manage a crisis and support national security decision-making. SIOC is part of the FBI’s information flow under the NSPM-32 process.

Partner agencies in the election security command post include the United States Postal Inspection Service, the United States Secret Service, Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Capitol Police, the Election Assistance Commission, the Federal Communications Commission, and multiple components of the Department of Justice, including the Public Integrity Section.

“What all of these folks are doing is triaging information,” Barnacle said. “We've had information coming in to the FBI in the last few days. Some of it has been maybe state or local matters, and we're just making sure it gets to state and local officials.”

“When information is threatening and it rises to the violation of federal laws,” Barnacle added, “then we look to take action.”

<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2024/11/1730748693468.png" alt="Photo FBI" />
 <figcaption>Photo FBI</figcaption>
 </figure>The FBI, in conjunction with key partners, is operating a 24/7 national election command post (NECP) from the Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC) at FBI Headquarters in Washington, D.C., during the 2024 national election, according to a media release from the agency.Numerous FBI Headquarters divisions are represented in the NECP, as well as federal partners from a variety of agencies,&nbsp;including the U.S. Department of Justice, U.S. Postal Inspection Service, U.S. Postal Service Office of Inspector General, U.S. Secret Service, U.S. Capitol Police, Department of Homeland Security, Election Assistance Commission, and Federal Communications Commission.&nbsp;The NECP's purpose is to ensure the FBI is well-positioned to respond to any election security issue that may arise, including federal election crimes, threats to election workers, foreign malign influence operations, cyber threats, and acts of domestic terrorism. The NECP will track significant complaints from all 55 FBI field offices through their respective command posts.“The purpose of the command post is to ensure the FBI is well positioned to respond to threats that would come in or information that would come in that would affect our election security,” said James Barnacle, deputy assistant director of the Bureau’s Criminal Investigative Division. “Those threats include criminal threats such as threats to election workers, foreign malign influence, cyber threats and acts of domestic violence.”About 80 personnel from the FBI and about a dozen partner agencies are staffing the command post in the FBI’s Strategic Information Operations Center. The command post opened on November 1 and will run through at least November 9.“We feel like we're well positioned to handle and triage information that comes in,” Barnacle said. “We have the people in place. We've identified the right people at the different agencies. We've developed those partnerships over the last few years. We're going to take the information that comes in, and we're going to take it through our process, and we're going to share that information.”Barnacle said that each of the FBI’s 55 field offices is also staffing a command post that is closely connected with their partner agencies and election officials. That way information or complaints that are fielded at the local level or though the FBI’s tip line,<a href="http://%20tips.fbi.gov/" target="_blank">&nbsp;tips.fbi.gov</a>, get to the people who can triage and best determine a response.“We look at that threat information,” Barnacle said. “We run it through our indices. We engage with our partners. There's a lot of partner agencies here at the command post. So we triage that information. We also work with Department of Justice to ensure that we are staying within policy and taking the information and then sending it back out to the field or to state or local election officials.”In the days leading up to Election Day, SIOC’s National Crisis Coordination Center (NC3) was humming with activity. The space hosts command posts for other high-profile events, such as presidential inaugurations and State of the Union speeches. Created in 1989, SIOC began with just seven employees and 3,000 square feet of space. Today, its footprint has grown to 40,000 square feet.The FBI is mandated by National Security Presidential Memorandum 32 to provide timely information about national security incidents so leaders have the information to manage a crisis and support national security decision-making. SIOC is part of the FBI’s information flow under the NSPM-32 process.Partner agencies in the election security command post include the United States Postal Inspection Service, the United States Secret Service, Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Capitol Police, the Election Assistance Commission, the Federal Communications Commission, and multiple components of the Department of Justice, including the Public Integrity Section.“What all of these folks are doing is triaging information,” Barnacle said. “We've had information coming in to the FBI in the last few days. Some of it has been maybe state or local matters, and we're just making sure it gets to state and local officials.”“When information is threatening and it rises to the violation of federal laws,” Barnacle added, “then we look to take action.”

FBI national command post monitoring election security threats

BY:&nbsp;<a href="https://kansasreflector.com/author/jennifer-shutt/">JENNIFER SHUTT</a>

WASHINGTON — Voters are determining whether the next president enters office with a friendly Congress or a hostile one set on blocking their policies and nominees — and as the election roars into its last moments it’s still very unclear what the makeup of the House and Senate might be.

Most House races are not competitive. But House leaders are closely watching about two dozen toss-up contests to see whether Democrats or Republicans end up with the magic 218 lawmakers needed to control the speaker’s gavel, the agenda and the floor schedule.

The GOP’s razor-thin majority during the last two years created significant obstacles for leadership’s legislative goals and ended Kevin McCarthy’s speakership.

Neither political party is expected to gain a large House majority during the next Congress, set to begin in January. There’s even a possibility the majority party has less wiggle room than the 220-212 split that currently exists, along with three vacancies. Experts warn it may not be known on election night or for some time who’s won the House.

Senate leaders have been equally focused on hard-fought and close campaigns in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Any one of them could deliver control of the upper chamber.

Republicans are favored to turn over the West Virginia seat occupied by Joe Manchin III, potentially pushing them past the 50-member benchmark if they hold onto seats occupied by incumbents Ted Cruz in Texas, Deb Fischer in Nebraska and Rick Scott in Florida.

If Democrats keep 50 seats, that would mean whichever party holds the vice presidency controls the Senate, making even just one pickup in either direction a priority for both political parties.

The outcome in both the House and Senate will have sweeping implications for the country’s future, including whether the GOP overhauls Obamacare, how lawmakers address core aspects of Republicans’ 2017 tax law set to expire in the coming months and whether the country defaults on its debts for the first time in history.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings" target="_blank">rates</a>&nbsp;four Senate races as toss-ups, meaning there’s a relatively even chance for Democrats or Republicans to win.

While the campaigns have shifted around a bit during the last few months, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are all considered neck and neck heading into Election Day.

Arizona and Nevada are categorized as leaning toward Democrats and Montana is expected to lean toward a Republican pickup, potentially giving the GOP its 51st seat and a narrow majority.

It’s also possible there could be upsets in Republican-held states traditionally considered safer, like Florida, Nebraska and Texas.That could alter the math for both Democrats and Republicans, depending on how things shake out after all the votes are counted, recounts finalized and lawsuits settled in the days and weeks following Nov. 5.

Jessica Taylor, editor for U.S. Senate and Governors at the Cook Political Report, said in a statement released Friday the “battle for the Senate fundamentally ends where the cycle began — with an overwhelmingly favorable map that very likely portends a GOP majority.”

Her projections show the GOP picking up two to five seats, giving the party a majority between 51 and 54 members.

A narrower majority, Taylor said, would allow “moderates like Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Maine Sen. Susan Collins to wield outsized influence in the next Congress.”

Michigan Sen. Gary Peters, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said during an&nbsp;<a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?539651-1/sen-gary-peters-discusses-senate-races" target="_blank">interview</a>&nbsp;with Washington Post Live in late October that he expects voters in Montana and Ohio will split their tickets.

He acknowledged getting voters to support Democratic Sens. Jon Tester in Montana and Sherrod Brown in Ohio, while also voting for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, will be much more challenging than in the past.

“Certainly, it’s not easy if there’s a lot of political gravity,” Peters said. “I’m not going to sugarcoat that in any way.”

But, he said, both Tester and Brown have been consistently polling within the margin of error against their GOP challengers.

“It’s about who’s going to get their voters out and do the kind of ground campaign necessary to win,” Peters said. “We’re doing that in Montana. We’re doing that in Ohio as well.”

The Senate is more important to the next president than the House, since the upper chamber is responsible for vetting and confirming the next commander-in-chief’s selections for their Cabinet as well as judicial nominees.

A GOP Senate would be a gift for Trump but likely tough for Vice President Kamala Harris.

The opposite could also be true — a Democratic majority in the Senate could put the brakes on many of Trump’s plans for a second term, while it would aid Harris in setting up her administration and potentially confirming a Supreme Court justice or two.

The Senate is the more bipartisan of the two chambers, thanks to the legislative filibuster — the rule requiring at least 60 senators agree to advance legislation toward final passage.

Without bipartisan support, bills and some nominees will be stuck in limbo, regardless of which party runs the Senate or controls the White House.

Philip Wallach, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative-leaning think tank, said a Harris administration and a Republican Senate would need to work out an agreement quickly “or risk going into some kind of protracted standoff over executive branch nominations.”

Both Trump and President Joe Biden had the luxury of same-party Senate control during their full terms and former President Barack Obama had a Democratic Senate during his first six years in office. Harris possibly having to work with the opposing party to establish her Cabinet would be especially challenging, Wallach said in an interview.

“I would expect Republicans to try to come up with some pretty concrete asks as a conference: To say, ‘If we’re going to put any of your nominees up for a vote, here’s what we want in return, and here’s what kind of nominees we will accept.’ And, you know, I expect that would play out as a fairly heated public confrontation,” he said.

Trump and a Republican Senate would likely agree on some nominees and policy goals, though there would be significant differences over issues like&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/trump-vows-levy-horrible-tariffs-imports-rejecting-fears-inflation-spike" target="_blank">tariffs</a>.

“I think there are a lot of Republican senators who want to see some real limits to that, who still think of themselves as basically in favor of free trade and making sure that American businesses don’t find themselves on the wrong end of a trade war,” Wallach said. “Especially in the Senate, I just don’t think they’re that eager to just march to Trump’s tune.”

A Trump administration, he said, could also disagree with GOP lawmakers on the specific details of how to address tax policy.

“I think it’s a very live possibility that there could be a much more confrontational kind of dynamic this time around, in part, because Trump and some of the people right around him have this idea that playing nicely in 2017 was a big mistake,” Wallach said.

Control of the 435-member House is more uncertain than the Senate, with 22 races&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings" target="_blank">rated as toss-ups</a>&nbsp;by the Cook Political Report.

Twelve of those are held by Republicans, while 10 are occupied by Democratic lawmakers. At the moment, 205 House seats are at least leaning toward a Democratic win, with 208 districts at least leaning toward Republicans.

The Cook Political Report’s final projections range from Republicans adding five seats to their majority to Democrats picking up 10 seats and taking over the majority again.

“The race for control of the U.S. House remains as close as it’s ever been,”

Erin Covey, editor for the House at CPR, said in a written statement.

“The battleground is confined to a few dozen seats, with neither party having a clear advantage in a majority of seats,” Covey added. “And with several competitive races in West Coast states that take longer to count their ballots, it’s highly possible we won’t know which party has control on election night.”

The House is essential to turning bills into law, though it doesn’t have any role in confirming presidential nominees. And unlike the Senate, there’s no legislative filibuster, which means the majority party can approve any bills it wants without buy-in from the minority party, as long as the leaders in the majority have the votes from their own members.

Republican control of at least one chamber of Congress and a Harris victory would force significant bipartisan compromise on must-pass legislation, like the dozen annual government funding bills and the defense policy bill known as the National Defense Authorization Act.

It could also lead to the types of bipartisan legislation that Biden made a hallmark of his term in office, including the bipartisan infrastructure law.

That type of divided government is unlikely to produce the sweeping changes to home ownership, prescription drug prices, price gouging and reproductive rights that Harris has highlighted throughout her campaign.

But it could lead Republicans and Democrats to resurrect&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/bipartisan-border-bill-loses-support-fails-procedural-vote-us-senate" target="_blank">the bipartisan immigration and border security bill</a>&nbsp;that Oklahoma Republican Sen. James Lankford, Connecticut Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy and Arizona independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema agreed to earlier this year.

Trump in the White House and Democrats holding onto at least one chamber in Congress could also force bipartisan compromise, though likely with a far different tone and approach than under a Harris-Republican Congress scenario.

Trump regaining the presidency along with GOP control of Congress would give the party at least two chances to use the complex budget reconciliation process to pass certain legislation.

The party would likely use one of those opportunities to address provisions in the 2017 Republican tax law that have expired or are about to.

The budget reconciliation process, which has considerable rules and restrictions, is how Republicans passed the tax bill during Trump’s first term in office.

It doesn’t require at least 60 senators to advance the bill. But it does include something known as a vote-a-rama, where the Senate holds dozens of votes on amendments to the bill. The process typically lasts throughout the night and gives the party not in power a chance to force their colleagues across the aisle to vote on tough issues.

Budget reconciliation is the process Republicans used to try to repeal and replace the 2010 health care law that’s often referred to as the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, during Trump’s first term in office.

Speaker Mike Jonson, R-La., said in late October on Fox Business that some of his<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/speaker-johnson-criticizes-obamacare-promises-massive-reform-trump-win-rcna177853" target="_blank">&nbsp;prior comments</a>&nbsp;about overhauling the ACA were taken out of context and that he wants to make changes to the program, but not entirely end it.

“I said the ACA, unfortunately, is deeply ingrained in our health care system now,” he said. “Do we need further improvements? Absolutely. We need to expand quality of care, access to care and obviously lower the cost of health care.”

Johnson said during the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRGW9IVOaP4" target="_blank">interview</a>&nbsp;that he was “convinced” Republicans would gain unified control of government following the election and that he had compiled a “two-hour slide show presentation” detailing what the GOP would do with that power.

“We will secure the border on day one with a President Trump executive order and then legislation to follow, and we will turn immediately to the economy,” Johnson said. “Energy policy will be the center of that as well.”

Deeply conservative House bills might not garner the support needed to overcome the Senate’s legislative filibuster.

Unified Republican control of Congress and the White House would challenge the GOP to address the nation’s debt limit mostly on its own during the first half of next year after&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/us-senate-sends-biden-debt-limit-legislation-ahead-monday-default-deadline" target="_blank">the current law</a>&nbsp;expires.

A default on the nation’s debt is&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/us-hit-debt-limit-much-sooner-expected-thrusting-congress-showdown" target="_blank">vastly different from a partial government shutdown</a>, which takes place when Congress doesn’t pass an appropriations package on time.

Failing to either raise or suspend the nation’s debt limit, before what’s known as extraordinary measures runs out, would likely cause a global financial crisis.

The GOP has been extremely vocal about cutting government spending, but that is separate from addressing the nation’s debt limit, which gives the Treasury Department the borrowing authority to ensure all of the country’s bills are paid in full and on time.

<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2024/7/1720316487639.png" alt="" />
 <figcaption></figcaption>
 </figure>BY:&nbsp;<a href="https://kansasreflector.com/author/jennifer-shutt/">JENNIFER SHUTT</a>WASHINGTON — Voters are determining whether the next president enters office with a friendly Congress or a hostile one set on blocking their policies and nominees — and as the election roars into its last moments it’s still very unclear what the makeup of the House and Senate might be.Most House races are not competitive. But House leaders are closely watching about two dozen toss-up contests to see whether Democrats or Republicans end up with the magic 218 lawmakers needed to control the speaker’s gavel, the agenda and the floor schedule.The GOP’s razor-thin majority during the last two years created significant obstacles for leadership’s legislative goals and ended Kevin McCarthy’s speakership.Neither political party is expected to gain a large House majority during the next Congress, set to begin in January. There’s even a possibility the majority party has less wiggle room than the 220-212 split that currently exists, along with three vacancies. Experts warn it may not be known on election night or for some time who’s won the House.Senate leaders have been equally focused on hard-fought and close campaigns in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Any one of them could deliver control of the upper chamber.Republicans are favored to turn over the West Virginia seat occupied by Joe Manchin III, potentially pushing them past the 50-member benchmark if they hold onto seats occupied by incumbents Ted Cruz in Texas, Deb Fischer in Nebraska and Rick Scott in Florida.If Democrats keep 50 seats, that would mean whichever party holds the vice presidency controls the Senate, making even just one pickup in either direction a priority for both political parties.The outcome in both the House and Senate will have sweeping implications for the country’s future, including whether the GOP overhauls Obamacare, how lawmakers address core aspects of Republicans’ 2017 tax law set to expire in the coming months and whether the country defaults on its debts for the first time in history.<h2>Four tense toss-ups in the Senate</h2>The nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings" target="_blank">rates</a>&nbsp;four Senate races as toss-ups, meaning there’s a relatively even chance for Democrats or Republicans to win.While the campaigns have shifted around a bit during the last few months, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are all considered neck and neck heading into Election Day.Arizona and Nevada are categorized as leaning toward Democrats and Montana is expected to lean toward a Republican pickup, potentially giving the GOP its 51st seat and a narrow majority.It’s also possible there could be upsets in Republican-held states traditionally considered safer, like Florida, Nebraska and Texas.That could alter the math for both Democrats and Republicans, depending on how things shake out after all the votes are counted, recounts finalized and lawsuits settled in the days and weeks following Nov. 5.Jessica Taylor, editor for U.S. Senate and Governors at the Cook Political Report, said in a statement released Friday the “battle for the Senate fundamentally ends where the cycle began — with an overwhelmingly favorable map that very likely portends a GOP majority.”Her projections show the GOP picking up two to five seats, giving the party a majority between 51 and 54 members.A narrower majority, Taylor said, would allow “moderates like Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Maine Sen. Susan Collins to wield outsized influence in the next Congress.”<h2>Will some voters split their tickets?</h2>Michigan Sen. Gary Peters, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said during an&nbsp;<a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?539651-1/sen-gary-peters-discusses-senate-races" target="_blank">interview</a>&nbsp;with Washington Post Live in late October that he expects voters in Montana and Ohio will split their tickets.He acknowledged getting voters to support Democratic Sens. Jon Tester in Montana and Sherrod Brown in Ohio, while also voting for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, will be much more challenging than in the past.“Certainly, it’s not easy if there’s a lot of political gravity,” Peters said. “I’m not going to sugarcoat that in any way.”But, he said, both Tester and Brown have been consistently polling within the margin of error against their GOP challengers.“It’s about who’s going to get their voters out and do the kind of ground campaign necessary to win,” Peters said. “We’re doing that in Montana. We’re doing that in Ohio as well.”The Senate is more important to the next president than the House, since the upper chamber is responsible for vetting and confirming the next commander-in-chief’s selections for their Cabinet as well as judicial nominees.A GOP Senate would be a gift for Trump but likely tough for Vice President Kamala Harris.The opposite could also be true — a Democratic majority in the Senate could put the brakes on many of Trump’s plans for a second term, while it would aid Harris in setting up her administration and potentially confirming a Supreme Court justice or two.The Senate is the more bipartisan of the two chambers, thanks to the legislative filibuster — the rule requiring at least 60 senators agree to advance legislation toward final passage.Without bipartisan support, bills and some nominees will be stuck in limbo, regardless of which party runs the Senate or controls the White House.<h2>Possible standoff</h2>Philip Wallach, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative-leaning think tank, said a Harris administration and a Republican Senate would need to work out an agreement quickly “or risk going into some kind of protracted standoff over executive branch nominations.”Both Trump and President Joe Biden had the luxury of same-party Senate control during their full terms and former President Barack Obama had a Democratic Senate during his first six years in office. Harris possibly having to work with the opposing party to establish her Cabinet would be especially challenging, Wallach said in an interview.“I would expect Republicans to try to come up with some pretty concrete asks as a conference: To say, ‘If we’re going to put any of your nominees up for a vote, here’s what we want in return, and here’s what kind of nominees we will accept.’ And, you know, I expect that would play out as a fairly heated public confrontation,” he said.Trump and a Republican Senate would likely agree on some nominees and policy goals, though there would be significant differences over issues like&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/trump-vows-levy-horrible-tariffs-imports-rejecting-fears-inflation-spike" target="_blank">tariffs</a>.“I think there are a lot of Republican senators who want to see some real limits to that, who still think of themselves as basically in favor of free trade and making sure that American businesses don’t find themselves on the wrong end of a trade war,” Wallach said. “Especially in the Senate, I just don’t think they’re that eager to just march to Trump’s tune.”A Trump administration, he said, could also disagree with GOP lawmakers on the specific details of how to address tax policy.“I think it’s a very live possibility that there could be a much more confrontational kind of dynamic this time around, in part, because Trump and some of the people right around him have this idea that playing nicely in 2017 was a big mistake,” Wallach said.<h2>House ‘as close as it’s ever been’</h2>Control of the 435-member House is more uncertain than the Senate, with 22 races&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings" target="_blank">rated as toss-ups</a>&nbsp;by the Cook Political Report.Twelve of those are held by Republicans, while 10 are occupied by Democratic lawmakers. At the moment, 205 House seats are at least leaning toward a Democratic win, with 208 districts at least leaning toward Republicans.The Cook Political Report’s final projections range from Republicans adding five seats to their majority to Democrats picking up 10 seats and taking over the majority again.“The race for control of the U.S. House remains as close as it’s ever been,”Erin Covey, editor for the House at CPR, said in a written statement.“The battleground is confined to a few dozen seats, with neither party having a clear advantage in a majority of seats,” Covey added. “And with several competitive races in West Coast states that take longer to count their ballots, it’s highly possible we won’t know which party has control on election night.”The House is essential to turning bills into law, though it doesn’t have any role in confirming presidential nominees. And unlike the Senate, there’s no legislative filibuster, which means the majority party can approve any bills it wants without buy-in from the minority party, as long as the leaders in the majority have the votes from their own members.Republican control of at least one chamber of Congress and a Harris victory would force significant bipartisan compromise on must-pass legislation, like the dozen annual government funding bills and the defense policy bill known as the National Defense Authorization Act.It could also lead to the types of bipartisan legislation that Biden made a hallmark of his term in office, including the bipartisan infrastructure law.That type of divided government is unlikely to produce the sweeping changes to home ownership, prescription drug prices, price gouging and reproductive rights that Harris has highlighted throughout her campaign.But it could lead Republicans and Democrats to resurrect&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/bipartisan-border-bill-loses-support-fails-procedural-vote-us-senate" target="_blank">the bipartisan immigration and border security bill</a>&nbsp;that Oklahoma Republican Sen. James Lankford, Connecticut Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy and Arizona independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema agreed to earlier this year.Trump in the White House and Democrats holding onto at least one chamber in Congress could also force bipartisan compromise, though likely with a far different tone and approach than under a Harris-Republican Congress scenario.<h2>GOP trifecta?</h2>Trump regaining the presidency along with GOP control of Congress would give the party at least two chances to use the complex budget reconciliation process to pass certain legislation.The party would likely use one of those opportunities to address provisions in the 2017 Republican tax law that have expired or are about to.The budget reconciliation process, which has considerable rules and restrictions, is how Republicans passed the tax bill during Trump’s first term in office.It doesn’t require at least 60 senators to advance the bill. But it does include something known as a vote-a-rama, where the Senate holds dozens of votes on amendments to the bill. The process typically lasts throughout the night and gives the party not in power a chance to force their colleagues across the aisle to vote on tough issues.Budget reconciliation is the process Republicans used to try to repeal and replace the 2010 health care law that’s often referred to as the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, during Trump’s first term in office.Speaker Mike Jonson, R-La., said in late October on Fox Business that some of his<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/speaker-johnson-criticizes-obamacare-promises-massive-reform-trump-win-rcna177853" target="_blank">&nbsp;prior comments</a>&nbsp;about overhauling the ACA were taken out of context and that he wants to make changes to the program, but not entirely end it.“I said the ACA, unfortunately, is deeply ingrained in our health care system now,” he said. “Do we need further improvements? Absolutely. We need to expand quality of care, access to care and obviously lower the cost of health care.”Johnson said during the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRGW9IVOaP4" target="_blank">interview</a>&nbsp;that he was “convinced” Republicans would gain unified control of government following the election and that he had compiled a “two-hour slide show presentation” detailing what the GOP would do with that power.“We will secure the border on day one with a President Trump executive order and then legislation to follow, and we will turn immediately to the economy,” Johnson said. “Energy policy will be the center of that as well.”Deeply conservative House bills might not garner the support needed to overcome the Senate’s legislative filibuster.Unified Republican control of Congress and the White House would challenge the GOP to address the nation’s debt limit mostly on its own during the first half of next year after&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/us-senate-sends-biden-debt-limit-legislation-ahead-monday-default-deadline" target="_blank">the current law</a>&nbsp;expires.A default on the nation’s debt is&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/us-hit-debt-limit-much-sooner-expected-thrusting-congress-showdown" target="_blank">vastly different from a partial government shutdown</a>, which takes place when Congress doesn’t pass an appropriations package on time.Failing to either raise or suspend the nation’s debt limit, before what’s known as extraordinary measures runs out, would likely cause a global financial crisis.The GOP has been extremely vocal about cutting government spending, but that is separate from addressing the nation’s debt limit, which gives the Treasury Department the borrowing authority to ensure all of the country’s bills are paid in full and on time.

Will control of Congress shift? The results hinge on a handful of states and races

WASHINGTON — As the last weekend before Tuesday’s presidential election approaches, voters who want more insight on where the candidates stand on major policy issues can get up to speed through a States Newsroom Washington Bureau series.

In these 10 articles, States Newsroom reported on the policy positions taken by Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, ranging from education to taxes to Social Security and Medicare.

After the conservative-dominated U.S. Supreme Court in 2022 struck down the constitutional right to abortion, Democrats made restoring access to reproductive care a core campaign issue.

Click&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/reproductive-rights-where-do-trump-and-harris-stand" target="_blank">here</a>&nbsp;for the story

The U.S. Supreme Court has been mired in controversy, from several ethics scandals to calls from Democrats to expand the number of justices on the court.

Click&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/reforms-us-supreme-court-where-do-harris-and-trump-stand" target="_blank">here</a>&nbsp;for the story

One policy issue that Trump has made central to his campaign is immigration. At his campaign rallies across the country he’s promised mass deportations of millions of immigrants living in the country without authorization.

Harris has mainly stated that she would revive a bipartisan congressional agreement when it comes to addressing U.S. immigration policy.

Click&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/immigration-where-do-trump-and-harris-stand" target="_blank">here</a>&nbsp;for the story

Addressing the Social Security and Medicare trust funds will become an increasingly important job for the incoming president and Congress for the next decade.

Click<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/social-security-and-medicare-where-do-harris-and-trump-stand" target="_blank">&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;for the story

As several states like North Carolina and Tennessee recover from Category 4 Hurricane Helene, climate change has taken up little attention in the 2024 presidential race, despite its wide-ranging effects.

Click&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/energy-and-climate-where-do-harris-and-trump-stand" target="_blank">here&nbsp;</a>for the story

While housing is typically handled at the local level, both presidential candidates want to tackle the housing crisis at the federal level.

Click&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/housing-where-do-trump-and-harris-stand" target="_blank">here</a>&nbsp;for the story

On the campaign trail, education policies have rarely been in the spotlight, though the candidates’ policies on K-12 and higher education widely differ.

Click<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/education-where-do-harris-and-trump-stand" target="_blank">&nbsp;here for the&nbsp;</a>story

A 2017 tax law crafted under the Trump administration is set to expire next year, meaning whichever candidate wins the White House will either overhaul the previous law or extend it.

Click&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/taxes-where-do-trump-and-harris-stand" target="_blank">here</a>&nbsp;for the story

Both candidates agree that gun violence is a problem, but that’s the end of where Harris and Trump are in concurrence.

Click<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/guns-where-do-trump-and-harris-stand" target="_blank">&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;for story

Regardless of who wins the White House, the next president will have several international crises to address. That includes the Israel-Hamas war in the Middle East, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s refusal to retreat from Ukraine and U.S-China trade relations.

Click&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/foreign-policy-where-do-harris-and-trump-stand" target="_blank">here for the story</a>

<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2024/9/1726020929820.png" alt="Image courtesy ABC via CSPAN" />
 <figcaption>Image courtesy ABC via CSPAN</figcaption>
 </figure>BY:&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/author/ariana-figueroa/">ARIANA FIGUEROA</a>WASHINGTON — As the last weekend before Tuesday’s presidential election approaches, voters who want more insight on where the candidates stand on major policy issues can get up to speed through a States Newsroom Washington Bureau series.In these 10 articles, States Newsroom reported on the policy positions taken by Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, ranging from education to taxes to Social Security and Medicare.They are:<h2>Reproductive Rights</h2>After the conservative-dominated U.S. Supreme Court in 2022 struck down the constitutional right to abortion, Democrats made restoring access to reproductive care a core campaign issue.Click&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/reproductive-rights-where-do-trump-and-harris-stand" target="_blank">here</a>&nbsp;for the story<h2>U.S. Supreme Court reform</h2>The U.S. Supreme Court has been mired in controversy, from several ethics scandals to calls from Democrats to expand the number of justices on the court.Click&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/reforms-us-supreme-court-where-do-harris-and-trump-stand" target="_blank">here</a>&nbsp;for the story<h2>Immigration</h2>One policy issue that Trump has made central to his campaign is immigration. At his campaign rallies across the country he’s promised mass deportations of millions of immigrants living in the country without authorization.Harris has mainly stated that she would revive a bipartisan congressional agreement when it comes to addressing U.S. immigration policy.Click&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/immigration-where-do-trump-and-harris-stand" target="_blank">here</a>&nbsp;for the story<h2>Social Security and Medicare</h2>Addressing the Social Security and Medicare trust funds will become an increasingly important job for the incoming president and Congress for the next decade.Click<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/social-security-and-medicare-where-do-harris-and-trump-stand" target="_blank">&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;for the story<h2>Climate and Energy</h2>As several states like North Carolina and Tennessee recover from Category 4 Hurricane Helene, climate change has taken up little attention in the 2024 presidential race, despite its wide-ranging effects.Click&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/energy-and-climate-where-do-harris-and-trump-stand" target="_blank">here&nbsp;</a>for the story<h2>Housing</h2>While housing is typically handled at the local level, both presidential candidates want to tackle the housing crisis at the federal level.Click&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/housing-where-do-trump-and-harris-stand" target="_blank">here</a>&nbsp;for the story<h2>Education</h2>On the campaign trail, education policies have rarely been in the spotlight, though the candidates’ policies on K-12 and higher education widely differ.Click<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/education-where-do-harris-and-trump-stand" target="_blank">&nbsp;here for the&nbsp;</a>story<h2>Taxes</h2>A 2017 tax law crafted under the Trump administration is set to expire next year, meaning whichever candidate wins the White House will either overhaul the previous law or extend it.Click&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/taxes-where-do-trump-and-harris-stand" target="_blank">here</a>&nbsp;for the story<h2>Guns</h2>Both candidates agree that gun violence is a problem, but that’s the end of where Harris and Trump are in concurrence.Click<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/guns-where-do-trump-and-harris-stand" target="_blank">&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;for story<h2>Foreign Policy</h2>Regardless of who wins the White House, the next president will have several international crises to address. That includes the Israel-Hamas war in the Middle East, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s refusal to retreat from Ukraine and U.S-China trade relations.Click&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/foreign-policy-where-do-harris-and-trump-stand" target="_blank">here for the story</a>

Where do Harris and Trump stand on 10 major policy issues?

MISSOULA — A man who conspired to hunt and kill bald and golden eagles and hawks on the Flathead Indian Reservation to sell on the black market was sentenced today to three years and 10 months in prison, to be followed by three years of supervised release, and ordered to pay $777,250 restitution, U.S. Attorney Jesse Laslovich said.

The defendant, Travis John Branson, 49, of Cusick, Washington, and formerly of the Flathead Reservation, pleaded guilty in March to conspiracy, two counts of unlawful trafficking of bald and golden eagles and violation of the Lacey Act, which prohibits interstate trade in wildlife that has been taken, possessed, transported or sold in violation of federal or state law. The Lacey Act also prohibits any person from making or submitting any false record, account, label for or identification of wildlife that has been or was intended to be transported in interstate or foreign commerce.

U.S. District Judge Dana L. Christensen presided. The court ordered Branson to self-report to the Bureau of Prisons.

“The bald eagle, adopted as America’s national symbol in 1782, represents our country’s core ideals of freedom, strength, and justice. Once on the brink of extinction, eagles recovered only because of conservation efforts by the American people and federal laws protecting them. None of that mattered to Travis Branson. Instead, Branson went on self-described ‘killing sprees’ for thousands of eagles and hawks, butchered them, and sold the parts and feathers for profit on the black market. He knew he was committing felonies and even joked his cost to kill them was the price of a bullet. But his conduct was no laughing matter. With today’s sentence, the cost to Branson was more than a bunch of bullets – he forfeited the very freedom the bald eagle symbolizes,” U.S. Attorney Laslovich said.&nbsp;&nbsp;

“The unlawful killing of these majestic birds violates federal law and is a profound offense against our nation's cherished natural heritage,” said Edward Grace, Assistant Director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Office of Law Enforcement. “Travis Branson's blatant disregard for the law and the sanctity of these protected species highlights the urgent need for stringent enforcement and greater public awareness regarding wildlife trafficking. His actions are particularly egregious, considering the significant number of bald and golden eagles he killed for personal profit, and such behavior will not be tolerated. We will continue to work closely with our law enforcement partners to protect America's wildlife and hold accountable all who are engaged in these illicit activities.”

“We are going to feel the impacts of the Flathead Reservation’s raptor loss for years to come,” said Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes Chairman Mike Dolson. “We hope this helps put a stop to illegal poaching on our homelands and gives these birds a chance to recover. Eagles are not only a treasured and important part of the Reservation’s ecosystem, but they also have a profound place in CSKT cultural and spiritual practices.”

In court documents, the government alleged that from about January 2015 until about March 2021, Branson and others hunted and killed eagles on the Flathead Reservation. Branson then sold the eagles on the black market across the United States and elsewhere. Brandon traveled from Washington to the Flathead Reservation, where he met co-defendant, Simon Paul. Branson and Paul would then shoot, transport and ship bald and golden eagles for future black-market sales. Co-defendant Paul remains a fugitive.

The government sought restitution values of $5,000 per eagle and $1,750 per hawk.

The government estimated that from 2009 until 2021, Branson made between $180,000 and $360,000 by selling eagles feathers and parts for profit on the black market.

The government’s investigation showed that Branson and others killed approximately 3,600 birds during the conspiracy. At least 118 eagles and 107 hawks killed were directly traceable to Branson and documented through his own text messages. Branson had taken up to nine eagles at a time. The photograph below shows nine sets of feathers, with one set stacked on top of the other in the upper left corner.

<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2024/11/1730492674717.png" alt="Photo courtesy U.S. Attorney for the District of Montana" />
 <figcaption>Photo courtesy U.S. Attorney for the District of Montana</figcaption>
 </figure>MISSOULA — A man who conspired to hunt and kill bald and golden eagles and hawks on the Flathead Indian Reservation to sell on the black market was sentenced today to three years and 10 months in prison, to be followed by three years of supervised release, and ordered to pay $777,250 restitution, U.S. Attorney Jesse Laslovich said.The defendant, Travis John Branson, 49, of Cusick, Washington, and formerly of the Flathead Reservation, pleaded guilty in March to conspiracy, two counts of unlawful trafficking of bald and golden eagles and violation of the Lacey Act, which prohibits interstate trade in wildlife that has been taken, possessed, transported or sold in violation of federal or state law. The Lacey Act also prohibits any person from making or submitting any false record, account, label for or identification of wildlife that has been or was intended to be transported in interstate or foreign commerce.U.S. District Judge Dana L. Christensen presided. The court ordered Branson to self-report to the Bureau of Prisons.“The bald eagle, adopted as America’s national symbol in 1782, represents our country’s core ideals of freedom, strength, and justice. Once on the brink of extinction, eagles recovered only because of conservation efforts by the American people and federal laws protecting them. None of that mattered to Travis Branson. Instead, Branson went on self-described ‘killing sprees’ for thousands of eagles and hawks, butchered them, and sold the parts and feathers for profit on the black market. He knew he was committing felonies and even joked his cost to kill them was the price of a bullet. But his conduct was no laughing matter. With today’s sentence, the cost to Branson was more than a bunch of bullets – he forfeited the very freedom the bald eagle symbolizes,” U.S. Attorney Laslovich said.&nbsp;&nbsp;“The unlawful killing of these majestic birds violates federal law and is a profound offense against our nation's cherished natural heritage,” said Edward Grace, Assistant Director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Office of Law Enforcement. “Travis Branson's blatant disregard for the law and the sanctity of these protected species highlights the urgent need for stringent enforcement and greater public awareness regarding wildlife trafficking. His actions are particularly egregious, considering the significant number of bald and golden eagles he killed for personal profit, and such behavior will not be tolerated. We will continue to work closely with our law enforcement partners to protect America's wildlife and hold accountable all who are engaged in these illicit activities.”“We are going to feel the impacts of the Flathead Reservation’s raptor loss for years to come,” said Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes Chairman Mike Dolson. “We hope this helps put a stop to illegal poaching on our homelands and gives these birds a chance to recover. Eagles are not only a treasured and important part of the Reservation’s ecosystem, but they also have a profound place in CSKT cultural and spiritual practices.”In court documents, the government alleged that from about January 2015 until about March 2021, Branson and others hunted and killed eagles on the Flathead Reservation. Branson then sold the eagles on the black market across the United States and elsewhere. Brandon traveled from Washington to the Flathead Reservation, where he met co-defendant, Simon Paul. Branson and Paul would then shoot, transport and ship bald and golden eagles for future black-market sales. Co-defendant Paul remains a fugitive.The government sought restitution values of $5,000 per eagle and $1,750 per hawk.The government estimated that from 2009 until 2021, Branson made between $180,000 and $360,000 by selling eagles feathers and parts for profit on the black market.The government’s investigation showed that Branson and others killed approximately 3,600 birds during the conspiracy. At least 118 eagles and 107 hawks killed were directly traceable to Branson and documented through his own text messages. Branson had taken up to nine eagles at a time. The photograph below shows nine sets of feathers, with one set stacked on top of the other in the upper left corner.

Man who killed hundreds of eagles and sold them is going to prison

BY:&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/author/ashley-murray/">ASHLEY MURRAY</a>

WASHINGTON — The next U.S. president must steer the nation through crises across the globe, including worsening violence in the Middle East, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s refusal to retreat from Ukraine and U.S-China trade relations.

The Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, largely built her career as a prosecutor, but once in Washington she sat on the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, a position that comes with access to highly classified national security files.

As vice president she’s represented the U.S. at high-profile international meetings, including the Munich Security Conference and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation.

The Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, who followed his wealthy father’s path into real estate and ascended to the status of celebrity businessman, has already held the elected position of Commander-in-Chief for four years — though high-ranking officials who served under him&nbsp;<a href="https://apnews.com/article/milley-trump-biden-democracy-military-d2abb76858291c87ae856f91e9556d8e" target="_blank">say</a>&nbsp;he&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bolton-excoriates-trump-fresh-introduction-his-memoir-2024-01-30/" target="_blank">should</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2024/03/30/mark-esper-wont-vote-for-trump-wont-say-he-will-vote-for-biden-sot-nr-vpx.cnn" target="_blank">not</a>&nbsp;occupy that seat again.

Trump and Harris’ track records can provide clues on how, if elected, they would handle complex and challenging national and economic security policies.

But overall on the campaign trail, foreign policy “has played a back seat role to domestic politics in the 2024 election,” James M. Lindsay, a senior fellow in U.S. foreign policy for the Council on Foreign Relations, told States Newsroom in an interview.

That’s not unusual, Lindsay said, as presidential year politics generally tend to have a domestic focus.

“This has been more a campaign about personalities than about specific policy prescriptions. It’s safe to say that the two candidates have very different world views,” Lindsay said.

Harris centers relationship building, and promised in her Democratic National Convention acceptance speech to “stand strong” with NATO allies.

In Trump’s convention speech he lamented that the U.S. has “long been taken advantage of” by “so-called allies.”

Observers say the former president leads with a transactional outlook: In other words, nations must pay for access to U.S. markets and security.

“Trump thinks that U.S. support to allies is a bad deal for America, whereas Harris realizes that the United States benefits immensely from them,” Matthew Waxman, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and chair of Columbia Law School’s National Security Law Program, told States Newsroom.

But predicting how a presidential candidate would act on the global stage, if elected, is tricky. Conflicts continue to evolve, and those in top defense and diplomatic jobs are likely to turn over.

“It’s partly because a President Harris or President Trump could face a very different situation in the Middle East or in Ukraine come Inauguration Day, but it’s also because in Washington personnel are policy, people are policy,” Lindsay said.

Here are some of the serious international situations either administration will face:

The deadly Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, launched from the Palestinian territory of the Gaza Strip, reignited smoldering regional tensions and highlighted the inextricable U.S. role. Hamas militants killed roughly 1,200 in the brutal and unexpected incursion, and took 250 hostages, many of whom still remain in captivity.

President Joe Biden immediately&nbsp;<a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47828" target="_blank">surged</a>&nbsp;weapons and security aid to the key U.S. defense partner, and in April Congress approved his request for $8.7 billion more in foreign military financing and missile defense.

Israel’s year-long campaign to completely eliminate Iranian-allied Hamas militants from the Gaza Strip has resulted in a staggering death toll, now over 41,000, according to Gaza health officials.

Hamas’ assault also set in motion attacks from other Iranian-backed militias, opening up a war front between Israel and Hezbollah fighters to the north in Lebanon. And for months, Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthis have terrorized commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

Biden has faced fierce criticism for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war tactics.

Harris, as early as March,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/03/04/1234822836/kamala-harris-benny-gantz-gaza-cease-fire-israel-hamas" target="_blank">publicly</a>&nbsp;criticized Israel over the humanitarian “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us-vp-harris-urges-israeli-government-do-more-boost-aid-into-gaza-2024-03-03/" target="_blank">catastrophe</a>” in Gaza and called for an immediate six-week cease-fire.

Harris, who became the Democratic presidential nominee in mid-summer after Biden dropped his bid, has repeatedly said she defends Israel’s right to defend itself but that “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/07/25/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-following-meeting-with-prime-minister-benjamin-netanyahu-of-israel/" target="_blank">how it does so matters</a>.”

Protesters could be heard in the distance Monday as Harris planted a memorial tree at the vice president’s residence to mark the one-year anniversary of the Oct. 7 attack. Pro-Palestinian activists protesting the death toll in Gaza have marched and rallied throughout the U.S. during the past year.

Harris&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/one-year-oct-7-attack-israel-us-leaders-honor-victims-and-protesters-march" target="_blank">told</a>&nbsp;reporters that the administration is “not giving up” on negotiating a cease-fire deal and release of hostages, an effort that has so far floundered.

“It’s one of the most important ways we will be able to end this war and bring any type of stability to the region. It’s one of the highest priorities of this administration,” she said.

She has not indicated any slowdown or conditions on assistance to Israel if elected — though she continues to advocate for a two-state solution.

“Trump may give Jerusalem less public chastising and criticism, but I’m not sure the policy differences would be that great either,” Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow and foreign policy research director at the Brookings Institution, told States Newsroom. O’Hanlon recently published an article arguing the Trump and Harris defense strategies would at least “<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-partially-convergent-trump-and-harris-defense-policies/" target="_blank">partially</a>” converge.

Trump maintains that Oct. 7 “would never have happened” had he been in office, and he accuses the Biden administration of inviting the attack because of its “weak” relationship with Iran.

“What is needed more than ever is a return of unwavering American leadership and unquestioned American strength. We were strong, we were powerful … That’s what I intend to deliver as the 47th president of the United States,” he said Monday while in Miami marking one year since the ambush on Israel.

The attack also wrecked any forward progress on the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.state.gov/the-abraham-accords/" target="_blank">Abraham Accords</a>&nbsp;— Trump’s signature Middle East achievement that created full diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco. While those established channels remain steady, the Biden administration’s efforts to strike a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia are now at a standstill.

Trump is increasingly selling himself on the campaign trail as the candidate of stability who can quash Iran’s aggression — which is pretty much a “standard approach to campaigning,” Lindsay said.

“He is not the first challenger to argue that the incumbent president has been weak.”

But Lindsay said, “the important question isn’t whether he was tougher, it’s whether his policies were more effective.”

For example, the Iranian-backed so-called “axis of resistance” militias currently upending the Middle East were also operating during Trump’s presidency.

“(They) pre-dated his coming into office but it’s not that a Trump administration ended that network of anti-Western, anti-Israeli groups,” Lindsay said. “And during the Trump administration it was the case that Iran both underwrote attacks on American troops and actually launched attacks on American troops.”

Trump drew attention last week to an early January 2020 barrage on U.S. troops in Iraq when he again&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/trump-describes-traumatic-brain-injuries-sustained-us-troops-iraq-headache" target="_blank">described</a>&nbsp;the traumatic brain injuries they suffered as “headaches.”

U.S. troops&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cfr.org/article/us-troops-middle-east-mapping-military-presence" target="_blank">in Iraq and Syria</a>, already a target, have come under increasing fire from Iran-backed militants, with more than 100&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/drone-strike-risks-dangerous-us-iran-escalation" target="_blank">attacks</a>&nbsp;on U.S. service members since Israel began its post-Oct. 7 offensive. A drone strike in January&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/28/politics/us-troops-drone-attack-jordan/index.html" target="_blank">killed</a>&nbsp;three U.S. soldiers and injured 30 at an outpost in Jordan on the Syrian border. The U.S. retaliated by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/02/02/1228132782/us-biden-iran-drone-response-strike" target="_blank">launching</a>&nbsp;more than 100 precision rockets at 85 of Iran military sites in Iraq and Syria.

The U.S. assisted Israel&nbsp;<a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3923123/us-assets-in-mediterranean-again-helped-defend-israel-against-iranian-missiles/" target="_blank">twice</a>&nbsp;in 2024 in intercepting rockets fired directly from Iran — once in April following Israel’s bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, and again in September after Israel’s assassination of Iranian-backed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, Lebanon.

“We’re in the last months of the Biden presidency, and Biden’s own, I think, personal influence here is quite diminished. And you know, I can’t predict what Trump policy really would be. I assume he would be less likely to be trying to restrain the Israelis, but so is the Biden administration. And maybe that is a Biden-Harris policy,” Elliott Abrams, CFR’s senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, told reporters on Oct. 2, the day after Iran launched its second direct&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/01/iran-imminent-ballistic-missile-attack-israel-us-warns" target="_blank">attack</a>.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with both&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/zelenskyy-washington-meets-us-leaders-beef-support-ukraine" target="_blank">Harris</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2024/09/27/u-s-government-unveils-charges-against-iranians-who-hacked-into-trump-2024-campaign/" target="_blank">Trump</a>&nbsp;in recent weeks to shore up continued U.S. support for his country’s ongoing war against Russia’s occupation.

Harris’ meeting with the Ukrainian leader was her seventh, and she pledged continued aid for the eastern European nation on the principle that Putin would continue marching into Europe if allies relent on Ukraine.

Harris supports continued U.S. assistance, which has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-us-aid-going-ukraine" target="_blank">totaled</a>&nbsp;roughly $175 billion since 2022. At the Ukraine peace&nbsp;<a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2024/06/16/joint-communique-on-a-peace-framework-summit-on-peace-in-ukraine/" target="_blank">summit</a>&nbsp;in Switzerland in June, Harris&nbsp;<a href="https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20240723-from-gaza-to-china-where-kamala-harris-stands-on-foreign-policy-issues" target="_blank">pledged</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/press-releases/jun-15-2024-/vice-president-kamala-harris-announces-over-1-billion-bolster-ukraines-energy-sector-address-humanitarian-needs-and-strengthen-civilian-security" target="_blank">nearly</a>&nbsp;$2 billion, some new and some redirected, to bolster the country’s energy sector and add to humanitarian efforts.

The vice president has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/02/19/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-at-the-munich-security-conference/" target="_blank">represented</a>&nbsp;the U.S.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/02/18/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-at-the-munich-security-conference-2/" target="_blank">three</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/02/16/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-at-the-munich-security-conference-munich-germany/" target="_blank">times</a>&nbsp;at the annual Munich Security Conference in Germany, where she praised the NATO alliance and said the U.S. commitment to its principles is “ironclad.”

When facing Harris on the presidential debate stage in September, Trump&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/harris-tears-trump-over-abortion-rights-and-race-tense-presidential-debate" target="_blank">refused</a>&nbsp;to answer whether he wants Ukraine to be victorious over Russia.

Trump’s rhetoric and past behavior “spells bad news for Ukraine,” Waxman said.

“He is likely to reduce American support for Ukraine and push Ukraine to make concessions to Russia. Overall, Trump’s transactional approach to leader-to-leader diplomacy is likely to benefit Putin,” Waxman continued. “Whereas Harris wants to invest in alliances like NATO, Trump is skeptical of them.”

That type of leader-to-leader communication was notoriously highlighted in 2019 when U.S. House lawmakers&nbsp;<a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artII-S4-4-9/ALDE_00000035/" target="_blank">impeached</a>&nbsp;Trump for directly threatening to withhold Ukraine aid if Zelenskyy did not announce an investigation into Biden — Trump’s presidential campaign rival at the time. The Senate acquitted Trump.

Like his campaign line on the Israel attack, Trump also repeatedly claims that had he been in office, instead of Biden, Russia would have never launched its February 2022 attack on Ukraine.

“The war in Ukraine did not begin in February of ‘22, it began back in 2014,” Lindsay said, referring to Putin’s forced annexation of the Crimean Peninsula.

Trump’s own administration&nbsp;<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/on-the-record-the-u-s-administrations-actions-on-russia/" target="_blank">expanded</a>&nbsp;Obama-era sanctions meant to punish Russia’s actions in Crimea.

“Experts can argue about how to dole out criticism across administrations, but clearly the issue of Russian support for a notionally independent insurrection in eastern Ukraine was not solved during the Trump presidency,” Lindsay continued.

Foreign trade is a “political hot potato,” and neither Harris nor Trump are offering much clarity for U.S. trading partners around the world, Mary E. Lovely, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told States Newsroom in an interview.

Lovely described the Biden-Harris approach as multipronged, in that they’ve instituted policies to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. while also aiming to maintain good trade relationships with partner nations.

The tightrope walk becomes even trickier as U.S. policy also&nbsp;<a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/while-us-and-china-decouple-eu-and-china-deepen-trade-dependencies" target="_blank">disincentivizes</a>&nbsp;materials and components from China — one of the world’s largest trading nations — in the final products imported from trading partners. Think: components in solar panels and electric vehicles.

The Biden administration’s major legislative accomplishments — the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act — provided major subsidies for “reshoring,” or returning to the U.S., clean energy and semiconductor production. But the policies were not without risks to U.S. trading partners.

“We had a lot of things (in the legislation), including things that upset the allies — you know, subsidies for American businesses, that they saw potentially as pulling investment out of their economies,” Lovely said.

<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2023/9/1695389171060.png" alt="File photo -President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy&nbsp; and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin- photo courtesy White House" />
 <figcaption>File photo -President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy&nbsp; and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin- photo courtesy White House</figcaption>
 </figure>BY:&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/author/ashley-murray/">ASHLEY MURRAY</a>WASHINGTON — The next U.S. president must steer the nation through crises across the globe, including worsening violence in the Middle East, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s refusal to retreat from Ukraine and U.S-China trade relations.The Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, largely built her career as a prosecutor, but once in Washington she sat on the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, a position that comes with access to highly classified national security files.As vice president she’s represented the U.S. at high-profile international meetings, including the Munich Security Conference and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation.The Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, who followed his wealthy father’s path into real estate and ascended to the status of celebrity businessman, has already held the elected position of Commander-in-Chief for four years — though high-ranking officials who served under him&nbsp;<a href="https://apnews.com/article/milley-trump-biden-democracy-military-d2abb76858291c87ae856f91e9556d8e" target="_blank">say</a>&nbsp;he&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bolton-excoriates-trump-fresh-introduction-his-memoir-2024-01-30/" target="_blank">should</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2024/03/30/mark-esper-wont-vote-for-trump-wont-say-he-will-vote-for-biden-sot-nr-vpx.cnn" target="_blank">not</a>&nbsp;occupy that seat again.Trump and Harris’ track records can provide clues on how, if elected, they would handle complex and challenging national and economic security policies.But overall on the campaign trail, foreign policy “has played a back seat role to domestic politics in the 2024 election,” James M. Lindsay, a senior fellow in U.S. foreign policy for the Council on Foreign Relations, told States Newsroom in an interview.That’s not unusual, Lindsay said, as presidential year politics generally tend to have a domestic focus.“This has been more a campaign about personalities than about specific policy prescriptions. It’s safe to say that the two candidates have very different world views,” Lindsay said.<h2>Relationships with allies</h2>Harris centers relationship building, and promised in her Democratic National Convention acceptance speech to “stand strong” with NATO allies.In Trump’s convention speech he lamented that the U.S. has “long been taken advantage of” by “so-called allies.”Observers say the former president leads with a transactional outlook: In other words, nations must pay for access to U.S. markets and security.“Trump thinks that U.S. support to allies is a bad deal for America, whereas Harris realizes that the United States benefits immensely from them,” Matthew Waxman, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and chair of Columbia Law School’s National Security Law Program, told States Newsroom.But predicting how a presidential candidate would act on the global stage, if elected, is tricky. Conflicts continue to evolve, and those in top defense and diplomatic jobs are likely to turn over.“It’s partly because a President Harris or President Trump could face a very different situation in the Middle East or in Ukraine come Inauguration Day, but it’s also because in Washington personnel are policy, people are policy,” Lindsay said.Here are some of the serious international situations either administration will face:<h2>Middle East</h2>The deadly Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, launched from the Palestinian territory of the Gaza Strip, reignited smoldering regional tensions and highlighted the inextricable U.S. role. Hamas militants killed roughly 1,200 in the brutal and unexpected incursion, and took 250 hostages, many of whom still remain in captivity.President Joe Biden immediately&nbsp;<a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47828" target="_blank">surged</a>&nbsp;weapons and security aid to the key U.S. defense partner, and in April Congress approved his request for $8.7 billion more in foreign military financing and missile defense.Israel’s year-long campaign to completely eliminate Iranian-allied Hamas militants from the Gaza Strip has resulted in a staggering death toll, now over 41,000, according to Gaza health officials.Hamas’ assault also set in motion attacks from other Iranian-backed militias, opening up a war front between Israel and Hezbollah fighters to the north in Lebanon. And for months, Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthis have terrorized commercial shipping in the Red Sea.Biden has faced fierce criticism for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war tactics.Harris, as early as March,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/03/04/1234822836/kamala-harris-benny-gantz-gaza-cease-fire-israel-hamas" target="_blank">publicly</a>&nbsp;criticized Israel over the humanitarian “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us-vp-harris-urges-israeli-government-do-more-boost-aid-into-gaza-2024-03-03/" target="_blank">catastrophe</a>” in Gaza and called for an immediate six-week cease-fire.Harris, who became the Democratic presidential nominee in mid-summer after Biden dropped his bid, has repeatedly said she defends Israel’s right to defend itself but that “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/07/25/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-following-meeting-with-prime-minister-benjamin-netanyahu-of-israel/" target="_blank">how it does so matters</a>.”Protesters could be heard in the distance Monday as Harris planted a memorial tree at the vice president’s residence to mark the one-year anniversary of the Oct. 7 attack. Pro-Palestinian activists protesting the death toll in Gaza have marched and rallied throughout the U.S. during the past year.Harris&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/one-year-oct-7-attack-israel-us-leaders-honor-victims-and-protesters-march" target="_blank">told</a>&nbsp;reporters that the administration is “not giving up” on negotiating a cease-fire deal and release of hostages, an effort that has so far floundered.“It’s one of the most important ways we will be able to end this war and bring any type of stability to the region. It’s one of the highest priorities of this administration,” she said.She has not indicated any slowdown or conditions on assistance to Israel if elected — though she continues to advocate for a two-state solution.“Trump may give Jerusalem less public chastising and criticism, but I’m not sure the policy differences would be that great either,” Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow and foreign policy research director at the Brookings Institution, told States Newsroom. O’Hanlon recently published an article arguing the Trump and Harris defense strategies would at least “<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-partially-convergent-trump-and-harris-defense-policies/" target="_blank">partially</a>” converge.Trump maintains that Oct. 7 “would never have happened” had he been in office, and he accuses the Biden administration of inviting the attack because of its “weak” relationship with Iran.“What is needed more than ever is a return of unwavering American leadership and unquestioned American strength. We were strong, we were powerful … That’s what I intend to deliver as the 47th president of the United States,” he said Monday while in Miami marking one year since the ambush on Israel.The attack also wrecked any forward progress on the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.state.gov/the-abraham-accords/" target="_blank">Abraham Accords</a>&nbsp;— Trump’s signature Middle East achievement that created full diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco. While those established channels remain steady, the Biden administration’s efforts to strike a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia are now at a standstill.Trump is increasingly selling himself on the campaign trail as the candidate of stability who can quash Iran’s aggression — which is pretty much a “standard approach to campaigning,” Lindsay said.“He is not the first challenger to argue that the incumbent president has been weak.”But Lindsay said, “the important question isn’t whether he was tougher, it’s whether his policies were more effective.”For example, the Iranian-backed so-called “axis of resistance” militias currently upending the Middle East were also operating during Trump’s presidency.“(They) pre-dated his coming into office but it’s not that a Trump administration ended that network of anti-Western, anti-Israeli groups,” Lindsay said. “And during the Trump administration it was the case that Iran both underwrote attacks on American troops and actually launched attacks on American troops.”Trump drew attention last week to an early January 2020 barrage on U.S. troops in Iraq when he again&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/trump-describes-traumatic-brain-injuries-sustained-us-troops-iraq-headache" target="_blank">described</a>&nbsp;the traumatic brain injuries they suffered as “headaches.”U.S. troops&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cfr.org/article/us-troops-middle-east-mapping-military-presence" target="_blank">in Iraq and Syria</a>, already a target, have come under increasing fire from Iran-backed militants, with more than 100&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/drone-strike-risks-dangerous-us-iran-escalation" target="_blank">attacks</a>&nbsp;on U.S. service members since Israel began its post-Oct. 7 offensive. A drone strike in January&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/28/politics/us-troops-drone-attack-jordan/index.html" target="_blank">killed</a>&nbsp;three U.S. soldiers and injured 30 at an outpost in Jordan on the Syrian border. The U.S. retaliated by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/02/02/1228132782/us-biden-iran-drone-response-strike" target="_blank">launching</a>&nbsp;more than 100 precision rockets at 85 of Iran military sites in Iraq and Syria.The U.S. assisted Israel&nbsp;<a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3923123/us-assets-in-mediterranean-again-helped-defend-israel-against-iranian-missiles/" target="_blank">twice</a>&nbsp;in 2024 in intercepting rockets fired directly from Iran — once in April following Israel’s bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, and again in September after Israel’s assassination of Iranian-backed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, Lebanon.“We’re in the last months of the Biden presidency, and Biden’s own, I think, personal influence here is quite diminished. And you know, I can’t predict what Trump policy really would be. I assume he would be less likely to be trying to restrain the Israelis, but so is the Biden administration. And maybe that is a Biden-Harris policy,” Elliott Abrams, CFR’s senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, told reporters on Oct. 2, the day after Iran launched its second direct&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/01/iran-imminent-ballistic-missile-attack-israel-us-warns" target="_blank">attack</a>.<h2>Ukraine and NATO</h2>Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with both&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/zelenskyy-washington-meets-us-leaders-beef-support-ukraine" target="_blank">Harris</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2024/09/27/u-s-government-unveils-charges-against-iranians-who-hacked-into-trump-2024-campaign/" target="_blank">Trump</a>&nbsp;in recent weeks to shore up continued U.S. support for his country’s ongoing war against Russia’s occupation.Harris’ meeting with the Ukrainian leader was her seventh, and she pledged continued aid for the eastern European nation on the principle that Putin would continue marching into Europe if allies relent on Ukraine.Harris supports continued U.S. assistance, which has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-us-aid-going-ukraine" target="_blank">totaled</a>&nbsp;roughly $175 billion since 2022. At the Ukraine peace&nbsp;<a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2024/06/16/joint-communique-on-a-peace-framework-summit-on-peace-in-ukraine/" target="_blank">summit</a>&nbsp;in Switzerland in June, Harris&nbsp;<a href="https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20240723-from-gaza-to-china-where-kamala-harris-stands-on-foreign-policy-issues" target="_blank">pledged</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/press-releases/jun-15-2024-/vice-president-kamala-harris-announces-over-1-billion-bolster-ukraines-energy-sector-address-humanitarian-needs-and-strengthen-civilian-security" target="_blank">nearly</a>&nbsp;$2 billion, some new and some redirected, to bolster the country’s energy sector and add to humanitarian efforts.The vice president has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/02/19/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-at-the-munich-security-conference/" target="_blank">represented</a>&nbsp;the U.S.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/02/18/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-at-the-munich-security-conference-2/" target="_blank">three</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/02/16/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-at-the-munich-security-conference-munich-germany/" target="_blank">times</a>&nbsp;at the annual Munich Security Conference in Germany, where she praised the NATO alliance and said the U.S. commitment to its principles is “ironclad.”When facing Harris on the presidential debate stage in September, Trump&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/harris-tears-trump-over-abortion-rights-and-race-tense-presidential-debate" target="_blank">refused</a>&nbsp;to answer whether he wants Ukraine to be victorious over Russia.Trump’s rhetoric and past behavior “spells bad news for Ukraine,” Waxman said.“He is likely to reduce American support for Ukraine and push Ukraine to make concessions to Russia. Overall, Trump’s transactional approach to leader-to-leader diplomacy is likely to benefit Putin,” Waxman continued. “Whereas Harris wants to invest in alliances like NATO, Trump is skeptical of them.”That type of leader-to-leader communication was notoriously highlighted in 2019 when U.S. House lawmakers&nbsp;<a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artII-S4-4-9/ALDE_00000035/" target="_blank">impeached</a>&nbsp;Trump for directly threatening to withhold Ukraine aid if Zelenskyy did not announce an investigation into Biden — Trump’s presidential campaign rival at the time. The Senate acquitted Trump.Like his campaign line on the Israel attack, Trump also repeatedly claims that had he been in office, instead of Biden, Russia would have never launched its February 2022 attack on Ukraine.“The war in Ukraine did not begin in February of ‘22, it began back in 2014,” Lindsay said, referring to Putin’s forced annexation of the Crimean Peninsula.Trump’s own administration&nbsp;<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/on-the-record-the-u-s-administrations-actions-on-russia/" target="_blank">expanded</a>&nbsp;Obama-era sanctions meant to punish Russia’s actions in Crimea.“Experts can argue about how to dole out criticism across administrations, but clearly the issue of Russian support for a notionally independent insurrection in eastern Ukraine was not solved during the Trump presidency,” Lindsay continued.<h2>China and trade</h2>Foreign trade is a “political hot potato,” and neither Harris nor Trump are offering much clarity for U.S. trading partners around the world, Mary E. Lovely, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told States Newsroom in an interview.Lovely described the Biden-Harris approach as multipronged, in that they’ve instituted policies to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. while also aiming to maintain good trade relationships with partner nations.The tightrope walk becomes even trickier as U.S. policy also&nbsp;<a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/while-us-and-china-decouple-eu-and-china-deepen-trade-dependencies" target="_blank">disincentivizes</a>&nbsp;materials and components from China — one of the world’s largest trading nations — in the final products imported from trading partners. Think: components in solar panels and electric vehicles.The Biden administration’s major legislative accomplishments — the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act — provided major subsidies for “reshoring,” or returning to the U.S., clean energy and semiconductor production. But the policies were not without risks to U.S. trading partners.“We had a lot of things (in the legislation), including things that upset the allies — you know, subsidies for American businesses, that they saw potentially as pulling investment out of their economies,” Lovely said.“These are things that the European Union, Japan, Korea were concerned about,” Lovely continued. “So we’ve seen it there — this tension between foreign policy and this idea of economic security.”While Lovely said she worries about how some of the Biden-Harris trade policies might affect competition and the nation’s ability to sign timely trade agreements, she said Trump’s plans are overall “destabilizing.”“The increased use of tariffs is misguided at best,” Lovely said.Trump’s promise to not only increase tariffs on Chinese imports to 60%, but also to slap flat 10% to 20% tariffs on all imports across the board is akin to “starting a trade war with the entire world.”“We’re not going to see those kinds of tariffs without retaliation,” Lovely said.If enacted, the tariffs would be particularly challenging for Indo-Pacific countries that rely on U.S. partnership in the face of China’s regional dominance.“I mean, you can imagine how this will go down in, say, Japan and Korea, two countries which rely on the U.S. for a security umbrella, which is why Trump thinks that he can do stuff to them. But they also have to protect their own economies,” Lovely said. “So it’s going to put them in a really terrible position because it’s very important for them to maintain their alliance with the U.S., economic as well as military.”But one thing is for sure, Lovely said: “Everybody wants to know what’s going to happen. Everybody in every embassy here in Washington.”

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