OMAHA, Neb. (AP) - The economy continues to recover in nine Midwest and Plains states, but businesses are still cutting jobs amid the ongoing impact of the coronavirus outbreak, according to a monthly survey of business leaders released Monday.
The overall index for the region improved to 57.4 in July from June's 50.3. Survey organizers say any score above 50 suggests growth. A score below 50 suggests decline.
"While the June and July's readings were much higher than I expected, they provide no grounds for celebration," Creighton University economist Ernie Goss said.
The region's overall index will have to remain above 50 for many months before the economy reaches the point it was at before states began imposing restrictions because of the coronavirus, Goss said.
The monthly survey covers Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.
Job losses have slowed in the region, but they continue to be reported. The employment index improved to 48.5 in July from June's 38.9, but it remained in negative territory.
But business leaders are optimistic about the next six months. The survey's confidence index increased to a strong 68.3 in July from June's 65.3.
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The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group uses the same methodology as the national survey to consult supply managers and business leaders. Creighton University economics professor Ernie Goss oversees the report.
The overall index ranges between 0 and 100. Growth neutral is 50, and a figure greater than 50 indicates growth in that factor over the next three to six months. A figure below 50 indicates decline.
Here are the state-by-state results for July:
Arkansas: The overall index for Arkansas rose to 61 from June's 50.9. Components of the index were: new orders at 68.7, production or sales at 67.6, delivery lead time at 66, inventories at 46.7, and employment at 56.0. According to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Arkansas has lost 63,000 jobs, or approximately 5% of its total employment since the coronavirus outbreak began and 16,000, or approximately 10%, of its manufacturing employment. "Our surveys point to only slight job gains in the months ahead," Goss said.
Iowa: Iowa's overall index climbed above growth neutral in July to register 50.9 from June's 47.1. Components of the overall index were: new orders at 66.4, production. or sales at 57.9, delivery lead time at 64.4, employment at 29, and inventories at 37. According to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Iowa has lost 108,000 jobs, or approximately 6.8% of its total employment since the virus outbreak began and 5,400, or approximately 2.4% of its manufacturing employment. "Our surveys point to continued job losses in the months ahead," Goss said.
Kansas: The state's overall index for July increased to 59.2 from June's 45.1. Components of the index were: new orders at 68, production or sales at 64.8, delivery lead time at 53.1, employment at 48.3, and inventories at 61.7. According to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Kansas has lost 78,000 jobs, or approximately 5.5% of its total employment since the start of the coronavirus outbreak and 10,400, or approximately 6.2% of its manufacturing employment. "Our recent surveys point to only slight job losses in the months ahead," Goss said.
Minnesota: The overall index for Minnesota climbed to 54.7 in July from 45.0 in June. Components of the overall index were: new orders at 65.0, production or sales at 52.3, delivery lead time at 64.5, inventories at 42.3, and employment at 49.2. According to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Minnesota has lost 249,000 jobs, or approximately 8.4% of its total employment, since the virus outbreak began and 21,600, or approximately 6.7% of its manufacturing employment. "Our surveys point to only slight job losses in the months ahead," Goss said.
Missouri: The overall index for Missouri sank to 44.7 in July from June's 50.5. Components of the overall index were: new orders at 66.6, production or sales at 58.9, delivery lead time at 25.4, inventories at 40.6, and employment at 31.8. According to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Missouri has lost 189,000 jobs, or approximately 6.6% of its total employment, since the coronavirus outbreak started and 16,000, or approximately 5.9% of its manufacturing employment. "Our surveys point to continued job losses in the months ahead," Goss said.
Nebraska: The state's overall index for July rose to 68.6 from 52.6 in June. Components of the index were: new orders at 68.6, production or sales at 67.2, delivery lead time at 62.1, inventories at 70.1, and employment at 55. According to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Nebraska has lost 56,000 jobs, or approximately 5.4% of its total employment, since the coronavirus outbreak began and 2,900, or approximately 2.9%, of its manufacturing employment. "Our surveys point to only slight job gains in the months ahead," Goss said.
North Dakota: The overall index for North Dakota declined to 45.5 in July from 51.6 in June. Components of the overall index were: new orders at 66.7, production or sales at 59.3, delivery lead time at 27, employment at 32.8, and inventories at 41.8. According to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, North Dakota has lost 37,000 jobs, or approximately 8.5% of its total employment since the virus outbreak started and 1,300, or approximately 5% of its manufacturing employment. "Our surveys point to continued job losses in the months ahead," Goss said.
Oklahoma: The state's overall index improved to 69 in July from June's 53.1. Components of the overall July index were: new orders at 69, production or sales at 69.2, delivery lead time at 73.6, inventories at 77.2, and employment at 60.6. According to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oklahoma has lost 83,000 jobs, or approximately 4.9% of its total employment since the coronavirus outbreak began and 9,200, or approximately 6.7% of its manufacturing employment. "Our recent surveys point to slight job gains in the months ahead," Goss said.
South Dakota: The overall index for South Dakota increased to 61 in July from June's 52.4. Components of the overall index were: new orders at 68.2, production or sales at 65.6, delivery lead time at 56.5, inventories at 64.2, and employment at 50.3. According to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, South Dakota has lost 24,500 jobs, or approximately 5.6% of its total employment since the virus outbreak started and 1,300 or approximately 3% of its manufacturing employment. "Our recent surveys point to only slight job gains in the months ahead," Goss said.