OMAHA, Neb. (AP) - A new monthly survey of business leaders in nine Midwest and Plains states suggests faltering confidence in the region's economy as a new surge of the coronavirus outbreak sweeps the country.
After climbing every month since bottoming out in April, the overall index of the Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions survey fell to 69.0 in November from October's 70.2.
Any score above 50 on the survey's indexes suggests growth, while a score below 50 suggests recession.
The monthly survey results have mirrored national manufacturing survey results, which indicate the sector has been expanding at a steady pace since sinking to a post-2008 recession low in April, according to Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, who oversees the survey.
"Even so, current output in the regional and U.S. manufacturing sectors remains below pre-COVID-19 levels," Goss said.
Meanwhile, the survey's confidence index looking ahead six months plummeted 20 points to 50.0 this month from October's 70.4.
"A sharp upturn in COVID-19 infections, along with more economic lockdowns, weighted on November's economic outlook," Goss said.
The survey's employment index fell to 63.1 from 66.7 in October. More than half of manufacturers surveyed this month indicated they had hired back all COVID-19 furloughed workers, while nearly 30% reported rehiring a portion of furloughed workers. Nearly 18% reported no furloughs. About 6% expect to furlough additional workers, Goss said.
The monthly survey covers Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.
Here are the state-by-state results for November:
Arkansas: The overall index for Arkansas fell to 62.2 from October's 64.4. Components from the November survey were: new orders at 73.7, production or sales at 73.9, delivery lead time at 52.3, inventories at 48.9, and employment at 62.3. "Recent surveys indicate that durable goods producers are expanding at a solid pace while nondurable goods manufacturers continue to experience flat business conditions," Goss said.
Iowa: Iowa's overall index remained above growth-neutral but declined to 74.6 from 78.7 in October. Components of the overall index were: new orders at 77.8, production. or sales at 79.2, delivery lead time at 78.7, employment at 62.5, and inventories at 87.2. "Recent surveys indicate that both durable and nondurable goods manufacturers are expanding at a solid pace," Goss said.
Kansas: The Kansas overall index decreased to 60.1 from 68.7 in October. Components were: new orders at 73.3, production or sales at 81.3, delivery lead time at 50.9, employment at 50.7, and inventories at 45.2. "Recent surveys indicate that both durable and nondurable goods producers are experiencing slow growth," Goss said.
Minnesota: The overall index for Minnesota declined to 73.2 from 82.7 in October. Components were: new orders at 79.5, production or sales at 80.9, delivery lead time at 72.5, inventories at 66.2, and employment at 66.9. "Recent surveys indicate that both durable and nondurable goods manufacturers are expanding at a solid pace," Goss said.
Missouri: The overall index for Missouri dropped to 75.6 from October's 78.0. Components were: new orders at 82.6, production or sales at 78.2, delivery lead time at 78.8, inventories at 82.6, and employment at 61.2. "Recent surveys indicate that durable goods manufacturers continue to expand at a solid pace, and nondurable goods producers are experiencing slow to no growth," Goss said.
Nebraska: Nebraska's overall index fell to 66.8 from 71.4 in October. Components of the index were: new orders at 75.6, production or sales at 76.2, delivery lead time at 58.9, inventories at 66.7, and employment at 56.7. "Recent surveys indicate that both durable and nondurable goods manufacturers are expanding at a solid pace," Goss said.
North Dakota: The overall index for North Dakota slumped to 57.2 from 59.0 in October. Components were: new orders at 73.2, production or sales at 73.3, delivery lead time at 50.5, employment at 50.4, and inventories at 38.9. "Recent surveys indicate that durable goods manufacturers and nondurable goods producers continue to experience slow to no growth," Goss said.
Oklahoma: Oklahoma's overall index sank below growth-neutral in November, to 49.4 from October's strong 61.1. Components were: new orders at 70.7, production or sales at 70.2, delivery lead time at 41.7, inventories at 20.6, and employment at 43.8. "Recent surveys indicate that durable goods manufacturers are experiencing slow to no growth, while nondurable goods producers continue to experience solid growth," Goss said.
South Dakota: The overall index for South Dakota climbed to 71.7 from 71.2 in October. Components were: new orders at 77.0, production or sales at 77.9, delivery lead time at 63.7, inventories at 79.5, and employment at 60.3. "Recent surveys indicate that durable goods manufacturers are experiencing slow to no growth, while nondurable goods producers continue to experience solid growth," Goss said.